{"id":81109,"date":"2024-09-30T23:17:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T23:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=81109"},"modified":"2024-11-13T17:01:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T17:01:06","slug":"wilkinson-flawed-crystal-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=81109","title":{"rendered":"Minister Wilkinson\u2019s flawed crystal ball"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Meet Canada\u2019s new expert on the global oil-and-gas market, and the world\u2019s\u00a0 future demand for those commodities.<\/p>\n<p>He is (surprise) Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada\u2019s federal minister of energy and natural resources, who has announced\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernstandard.news\/alberta\/wilkinson-says-oil-and-gas-makes-canada-poorer-will-peak-this-year\/58103\">this outlook<\/a>\u00a0for oil:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOil and gas will peak this decade. In fact, oil is probably peaking this year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The world oil market now eats up some 102.21 million barrels per day, so Wilkinson\u2019s anticipated peak this year would be around that much.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s not what market-watchers and oil-sector experts see:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/peak-oil-demand-is-still-a-decade-away\">Goldman Sachs Research<\/a>: \u201cWhile some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s in part because of demand for oil from emerging markets in Asia and demand for petrochemicals. We think peak demand is another decade away.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/publications.opec.org\/woo\">2024 outlook<\/a>\u00a0of OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (12 of the world\u2019s major oil-exporting nations) says simply: \u201cThere is no peak oil demand on the horizon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cFor oil alone, we see demand reaching over 120 million barrels a day by 2050, with the potential for it to be higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact. Combined they make up well over 50% of the energy mix today and are expected to do the same in 2050.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In an outlook for 2024-2050, one scenario from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bp.com\/content\/dam\/bp\/business-sites\/en\/global\/corporate\/pdfs\/energy-economics\/energy-outlook\/bp-energy-outlook-2024.pdf\">energy giant BP<\/a>\u00a0sees this: \u201cOil continues to play a major role in the global energy system over the first half of the outlook, with the world consuming between 100-80 Mb\/d of oil in 2035.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cOil demand declines over the outlook but continues to play a significant role in the global energy system for the next 10-15 years. This requires continuing investment in upstream oil (and natural gas).\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/markets\/oil\/2024\/08\/20\/enbridge-sees-strong-oil-demand-in-2050-with-us-supply-growing\/\">Greg Ebel<\/a>, CEO of Calgary-based Enbridge, says global oil consumption will be \u201cwell north\u201d of 100 million barrels per day by 2050 \u2014 and could exceed 110 million barrels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cYou continue to see economic demands, and particularly in the developing world, people continue to say lighter, faster, denser, cheaper energy works for our people. . .\u00a0 And that\u2019s leading to more oil usage.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Even the optimistic International Energy Agency sees global demand\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/oil-2024\/executive-summary\">increasing<\/a>\u00a0to 105.4 million barrels a day by 2030.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So take Minister Wilkinson\u2019s crystal-ball outlook, of oil \u201cprobably\u201d peaking this year, with at least a barrel of salt.<\/p>\n<p>Then there\u2019s Wilkinson\u2019s contention that continuing to rely on oil and gas \u201cwill leave Canada uncompetitive and poorer on a go-forward basis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If so, why did his why his government invest $4.5 billion of your taxpayer money in 2018 to buy the Trans Mountain oil pipeline system and its TMX expansion?<\/p>\n<p>Finance Minister\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/department-finance\/news\/2023\/03\/update-on-trans-mountain-expansion-project.html\">Chrystia Freeland<\/a>: \u201cBecause we knew it was a serious and necessary investment \u2014 one that is in the national interest and will make Canada and the Canadian economy more sovereign and more resilient.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/liberal.ca\/justin-trudeau-on-the-trans-mountain-expansion-project\/\">Prime Minister Trudeau<\/a>: \u201cBy moving forward with TMX, we\u2019re creating jobs, opening new markets, accelerating our clean energy transition, and generating new avenues for Indigenous economic prosperity. . . .<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis project isn\u2019t about expanding our production. It\u2019s about expanding our options. TMX will reduce our reliance on our single customer, the United States, and give us access to the growing markets of Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>All of that seems to have escaped Minister Wilkinson and his flawed crystal ball.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Statement from the federal minister of energy and natural resources is at odds with energy industry leaders and economists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":83413,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[33,32,35,41],"class_list":["post-81109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-oil-gas","tag-canada","tag-energy","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-ottawa"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Minister Wilkinson\u2019s 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