{"id":82767,"date":"2016-02-09T17:28:00","date_gmt":"2016-02-09T18:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=82767"},"modified":"2025-09-05T20:34:36","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T20:34:36","slug":"why_bill_gates_is_right_on_the_challenges_facing_clean_energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=82767","title":{"rendered":"Why Bill Gates is right on the challenges facing clean energy."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Here\u2019s why Forbes thinks he\u2019s right (and why we agree):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hydrocarbons\u2014oil, natural gas, and coal\u2014supply&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.cfm?id=527&amp;t=1\">90<\/a>%&nbsp;of global energy.&nbsp; And in the future, the world will need a lot more energy, not less.&nbsp; If policymakers want to change that equation in order to avoid the use of the carbon in the hydrocarbons, there are no easy solutions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, any technological solution will require, in Bill Gates words, \u201ca miracle\u201d to have significant impact on global energy use, and that\u2019s readily illustrated by data, by the math.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>America consumes energy equivalent to 15 oil supertankers\u00a0<strong><em>per day<\/em><\/strong>; more than 5 of those supertankers worth of energy are delivered daily as electricity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the same terms, the world uses the energy-equivalent of 90 oil supertankers every day, with 35 of those as electricity and another 35 as oil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bill Gates personally pledged $2 billion to invest in energy R&amp;D.\u00a0 Compare this to the $2 billion\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ogj.com\/articles\/2015\/01\/sharp-drop-expected-in-global-e-p-spending-in-2015-study-says.html\">spent<\/a>\u00a0<strong><em>every day<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0globally on capital equipment to find and produce just oil and gas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>And now for some of the math that illustrates the magnitude of the challenges in changing the world\u2019s energy system and backs up what Bill Gates is saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. \u201c[F]or energy as a whole, the incentive to invest is quite limited, because unlike digital products \u2026 almost everything that\u2019s &nbsp; been invented in energy was invented more than 20 years before it got scaled usage.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1905 and 1939 were the last times the world saw foundational inventions in energy sources.\u00a0 In 1905, Einstein received the Nobel Prize for the photoelectric effect leading to solar cells, and 1939 at the University of Chicago with the proof of nuclear fission.\u00a0 Now, about a century later, those two energy sources combined supply\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.world-nuclear.org\/info\/current-and-future-generation\/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today\/\">less<\/a>\u00a0than 4% of world energy (and nearly all of that from nuclear).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shale technology was pioneered in 1991. Some 25 years later, and with hundreds of billions of dollars of private investment in U.S. shale infrastructure, shale oil and gas have roiled markets but still collectively supply only 3% of world energy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>2. \u201cBut what we\u2019re asking ourselves to do here is change energy\u2014and that includes all of transport, all of electricity, all of household usage, and all of industrial usage.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We can add to the list\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tech-pundit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/Cloud_Begins_With_Coal.pdf?c761ac\">all data usage<\/a>. \u00a0The global information ecosystem now uses more energy than does global\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.gartner.com\/newsroom\/id\/503867\">aviation<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Everything people use and do, everywhere and always, requires energy, including and especially energy-intensive information-communications technologies:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Watching a baseball game on a smartphone uses as much energy as driving a Prius\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.lowtechmagazine.com\/2008\/02\/the-right-to-35.html\">30 miles<\/a>.\u00a0Consuming 100 GB on a smartphone uses the same amount of energy as that required to produce beef for 15 hamburgers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even the digital monetary system uses energy: globally, computers used to create\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cseweb.ucsd.edu\/~mbtaylor\/papers\/bitcoin_taylor_cases_2013.pdf\">virtual currency<\/a>, i.e. to \u2018mine\u2019 Bitcoins, consume as much energy as do the machines that dig for physical\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/srsroccoreport.com\/gold-mining-industry-fuel-costs-explode-in-a-decade\/gold-mining-industry-fuel-costs-explode-in-a-decade\/\">gold<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When the world\u2019s 4 billion poor people increase energy use to just 15% of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE\">per capita<\/a>\u00a0level of developed economies, global energy use will\u00a0<strong><em>rise\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>by the equivalent of adding 15 more supertankers (an America\u2019s worth) per day.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>3. \u201c[T]he biggest problem for the two lead candidates [wind and solar] is that storage looks to be so difficult. &nbsp;\u2026 We\u2019re more than a factor of 10 away from the economics to get that [grid-scale economic storage].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>All<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.teslamotors.com\/gigafactory\">annual output<\/a>\u00a0from what will become the world\u2019s biggest battery factory\u2014the\u00a0$5 billion\u00a0Tesla gigafactory under construction in Nevada\u2014can store just\u00a0<strong><em>five<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0minutes worth of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/data\/browser\/\">annual<\/a>\u00a0U.S. electric demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It would require 40 years worth of production from 100 gigafactories in order to build a battery \u2018tank\u2019 farm capable of storing enough electricity to match the energy held in the\u00a0oil tank farm at\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.cfm?id=20472\">Cushing, OK<\/a>, (one of many oil depots in the U.S).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>4. \u201cThey [clean-energy enthusiasts] have this statement that the cost of solar photovoltaic is the same as hydrocarbon\u2019s. And that\u2019s one of those misleadingly meaningless statements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>To have \u201cparity,\u201d electricity sources have to match both price\u00a0<strong><em>and<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0availability\u00a0precisely because electricity is so difficult to store.\u00a0 Essentially all kilowatt-hours are produced the same instant they are consumed.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.cfm?id=427&amp;t=3\">Today<\/a>, 95 percent of America\u2019s power comes from sources that can supply electricity any time it\u2019s needed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even spontaneous \u201cgrid parity\u201d is \u201cmeaningless\u201d (i.e., producing a kilowatt-hour for the same price as the grid when the sun is shining) because to match grid-scale availability, photovoltaics would still be about 400% more expensive than conventional grid power because of the extra production equipment and storage needed to ensure availability at any time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>5. \u201c[W]e need innovation that gives us energy that\u2019s cheaper than today\u2019s hydrocarbon energy, that has zero CO2 emissions, and that\u2019s as reliable as today\u2019s overall energy system. And when you put all those requirements together, we need an energy miracle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy13osti\/56776.pdf\">Solar<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy12osti\/54526.pdf\">wind<\/a>\u00a0and battery technologies have improved 150 to 250% in the past half-decade, in terms of energy produced per dollar of capital.\u00a0 Shale technology, measured the same way over the same time, has\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/drilling\/\">improved<\/a>\u00a0over 400%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.manhattan-institute.org\/pdf\/eper_16.pdf\">Shale technology<\/a>\u00a0has added 100 times more energy supply to America in the past decade than has\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/electricity\/monthly\/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_1_01_a\">solar<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>6. \u201cI would love to see a tripling, to $18 billion a year from the U.S. government to fund basic [energy] research alone. \u2026&nbsp; That may make it seem too daunting to people, but in science, miracles are happening all the time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.manhattan-institute.org\/html\/eper_15.htm#.VNPV_J3F_To\">Federal basic research<\/a>\u00a0funding has been in decline, and accounts for less than half of total government R&amp;D spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Less than 40% all DOE R&amp;D is devoted to\u00a0<strong><em>basic<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0research, and for other agencies that fund R&amp;D in areas relating to energy, less than 30% is directed at basic science.\u00a0 The majority of federal R&amp;D funding is directed at \u201cdevelopment\u201d and projects, not basic science, thereby turning government R&amp;D policy into\u00a0<em>de facto<\/em>\u00a0industrial policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>About 95% of private-sector R&amp;D spending is directed at \u201cdevelopment\u201d and not basic research.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A common response to the kind of cautions Bill Gates offers is to call for an energy version of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Program. But both of those programs constituted applied engineering, not basic research.&nbsp; The science underlying nuclear fission and high-energy chemistry (that made rockets possible) came decades before the engineering developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Google tried its hand at engineering big changes in energy.&nbsp; With its seemingly unlimited resources, Google launched an Apollo-like project called \u201c RE&lt;C\u201c to develop renewable energy that would be cheaper than coal.&nbsp; After Google cancelled the project in 2011, Google\u2019s lead engineers reached essentially the same conclusion as Bill Gates.&nbsp; Writing last year in the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/spectrum.ieee.org\/energy\/renewables\/what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate-change\">IEEE Spectrum<\/a>&nbsp;they concluded: \u201cIncremental improvements to existing [energy] technologies aren\u2019t enough; we need something truly disruptive \u2026. We don\u2019t have the answers.&nbsp;<strong>Those technologies haven\u2019t been invented yet<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fueling society is not like putting a man on the moon.&nbsp; It\u2019s like putting&nbsp;<strong><em>everybody on earth<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;permanently on the moon. The former was a one-time engineering feat; the latter would take miraculous technology.&nbsp; In science miracles do happen.&nbsp; But they\u2019re just not common, not predictable and can\u2019t be conjured on demand. As Bill Gates also observed in his Atlantic interview: \u201cinnovation is a very uncertain process.\u201d &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Canada joins many global partners in preparing to expand clean energy and technology investments, being aware of the sector\u2019s limitations may help keep our expectations realistic \u2013 so we can reap all possible benefits, without expecting a drastic shift in energy use that hasn\u2019t yet become viable, scientifically or economically.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cBill Gates is right\u201d, says\u00a0one Forbes contributor, referring to Gates\u2019\u00a0November interview with The Atlantic\u00a0where he begins his assessment of the challenges facing a shift to clean energy with a pointed challenge \u2013 we have to bring \u201cmath skills to the problem\u201d when talking about changing global energy use.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-renewables"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Bill Gates is right on the challenges facing clean energy. -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/why_bill_gates_is_right_on_the_challenges_facing_clean_energy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Bill Gates is right on the 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