{"id":83147,"date":"2014-07-22T15:22:00","date_gmt":"2014-07-22T15:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=83147"},"modified":"2024-11-12T15:00:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T15:00:01","slug":"lng_industry_going_to_happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/?p=83147","title":{"rendered":"Ongoing uncertainty over BC\u2019s LNG industry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27120-5\"><strong>Is BC\u2019s LNG industry really going to happen?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Well that\u2019s the big question, isn\u2019t it? The altogether unsatisfying answer is: maybe. This is ultimately a risky business involving much uncertainty.&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsroom.gov.bc.ca\/ministries\/natural-gas-development\/factsheets\/factsheet-lng-project-proposals-in-british-columbia.html\">At the latest count<\/a>&nbsp;there are 16 proposed BC-based LNG export facilities. The Business Council of BC&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bcbc.com\/publications\/2014\/the-lng-opportunity-in-bc-separating-rhetoric-from-reality-part-i\">estimates<\/a>&nbsp;proponents have spent about $2 billion on their ventures already. They wouldn\u2019t be here if they didn\u2019t think they had a shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27120-17\"><strong>Why so much uncertainty? Isn\u2019t there a huge demand for gas in Asia?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>There absolutely is. The demand is huge. Here\u2019s what the last 17 years of Asian natural gas demand looks like: (From&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.iea.org\/media\/freepublications\/AsianGasHub_WEB.pdf\">the International Energy Agency<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"538\" height=\"339\" src=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85145\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_1.jpg 538w, https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_1-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And this is a big reason why people in Asia are willing to pay so much more for gas than people in North America. As you can see here: (From\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/selectra.co.uk\/sites\/selectra.co.uk\/files\/pdf\/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf\">BP\u2019s<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bp.com\/content\/dam\/bp\/pdf\/statistical-review\/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf\">\u00a0Review of World Energy<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"536\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_2.jpg 536w, https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_2-300x186.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 536px) 100vw, 536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27168-2\"><strong>But if the demand is so big, why are people worried about BC\u2019s LNG sector succeeding?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Because, even with all this demand, there are still more LNG facilities being proposed today than the world needs. If every planned LNG facility in the world gets built, there would not be enough customers to buy it all. (See, for instance,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ey.com\/CA\/en\/Industries\/Oil---Gas\/Competing-global-LNG-market-Canada#.U82ON_ldUx5\">here&nbsp;<\/a>and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/policyschool.ucalgary.ca\/?q=content\/risky-business-issue-timing-entry-and-performance-asia-pacific-lng-market\">here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27168-14\"><strong>Does that mean some LNG facilities won\u2019t go ahead?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes. That\u2019s exactly what that means.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27168-20\"><strong>Gee, that sounds dark.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, it\u2019s really not. Even if just a few of the BC facilities go ahead, it would be a huge boost for the economy. The provincial government estimates that five LNG plants built between now and 2024 would result in 83,000 new direct and indirect jobs and industry investment of $175 billion. So if five out of 16 plants are built, we should count that as an achievement, not a failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BC also enjoys some competitive advantages relative to its competitors. These include BC\u2019s proximity to Asia, our trusted corporate and government institutions, our ample gas reserves and our low costs. Canadian LNG plants are expected to be able to run much more cheaply than those in other parts of the world, as you can see in this chart from a&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pwc.com\/ca\/en\/energy-utilities\/publications\/pwc-canadian-survey-2014-05-en-final.pdf\">recent PwC report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"536\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85148\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_3.jpg 536w, https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/graph_3-300x187.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 536px) 100vw, 536px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall message here is that we shouldn\u2019t take the success of BC\u2019s LNG industry for granted. If we want this industry in BC, we will have to compete for it. But we should also not give up. We have a lot of advantages that suggest we can compete with the rest of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-5\"><strong>Won\u2019t prices go down in Asia if all this natural gas hits the market?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>If I could predict such things, I\u2019d be trading stocks, not blogging. But let\u2019s answer that question with some textbook economics: If supply grows faster than demand, yes, we\u2019d expect prices to drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-11\"><strong>Won\u2019t falling prices ruin BC\u2019s LNG industry?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>No. LNG facilities are major investments, and proponents won\u2019t build them unless they are certain that they\u2019ll get a good price for a long time. That means all the companies are working to secure long-term contracts with customers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the day-to-day price of natural gas might shift up and down, but the prices BC\u2019s LNG industry will get will be fixed by long-lasting contracts. If a company can\u2019t secure such a&nbsp; contract, do not expect them to build an LNG facility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-20\"><strong>But not all the world\u2019s proposed LNG projects will be built. So who will get these contracts?\u00a0<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Excellent question, imaginary rhetorical device! In this business there will be a limited pool of long-term contracts to win. And when they\u2019re taken, they likely won\u2019t become available again for many years, likely decades. So if you\u2019re an LNG company, there\u2019s a race to secure those contracts. Again, the pressure is on for BC\u2019s LNG proponents to compete with those around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-26\"><strong>Will BC\u2019s LNG projects win that race?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>It is highly unlikely that all 16 proposed BC facilities will be built. Do not be surprised if that list gets shorter in the next few years. But remember that even a handful of successful BC LNG facilities would be a major boost to the BC economy. Economists who do long-term projections sometimes go with the assumption that BC will have three to five LNG facilities up and running by the early 2020s. (Here\u2019s<a href=\"http:\/\/www.central1.com\/sites\/default\/files\/uploads\/files\/analysis_report\/report_file\/ea%202014_01%20bc.pdf\">&nbsp;one example<\/a>.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-35\"><strong>So what\u2019s stopping BC\u2019s LNG proponents from signing these deals?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, let me count the ways: There\u2019s new pipelines to built, permits to get, regulations to navigate, First Nations to consult, investments to gather, tax regimes to figure out, labour to secure, communities to engage, contracts to negotiate, facilities to build, and on and on. These things are not simple. But let\u2019s not forget that we have advantages too, including low costs, good routes to Asia, great supplies of natural gas and strong institutions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"u27174-41\"><strong>So is BC\u2019s LNG industry REALLY going to happen?\u00a0<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>As I said: Maybe. To some extent, we can take comfort in the fact that a lot of companies want to be in BC. They\u2019ve looked at the fundamental business case and decided it\u2019s worth trying. That counts for a lot. But let\u2019s not fool ourselves; there\u2019s a long way to go and we can\u2019t be certain how it will all turn out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"u27174-49\"><em>Peter Severinson is the research Director for Resource Works. Follow on Twitter:<\/em>&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pseverinson\">@pseverinson<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peter Severinson writes that he has been reading a lot of crazy, confusing and contradictory things about the sector lately. To clarify things, here are his answers to some good questions posed by no one in particular<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":85143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[18,205,25,20,304,124],"class_list":["post-83147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-oil-gas","tag-economy","tag-jobs","tag-lng","tag-natural-gas","tag-prices","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ongoing uncertainty over BC\u2019s LNG industry -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/resourcework2.devstudio.work\/lng_industry_going_to_happen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ongoing uncertainty over BC\u2019s LNG industry -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Peter Severinson writes that he has been reading a lot of crazy, confusing and contradictory things about the sector lately. 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