The completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) in May 2024 was meant to end Canada’s near-total dependence on the U.S. as a crude oil export outlet. It worked. For the first time in history, Canadian oil is sailing directly from the West Coast to refiners across the Pacific — including India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy.
But Canada’s early foray into the Indian market comes at a moment when New Delhi’s oil trade with Russia is under intense global scrutiny.
India’s refining titans and Russian crude
Two massive refineries dominate India’s west coast: Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries facility in Jamnagar — the largest in the world — and the Nayara Energy refinery, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft. Together, they process roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, with about a third of Reliance’s intake and a large portion of Nayara’s coming from Russian sellers (NYT, Aug. 9, 2025).
These plants have thrived on Russian discounts since Europe turned away from Moscow’s crude after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. For over two years, Indian refiners bought huge volumes of seaborne Russian oil, processed it, and sold products into global markets — including Europe (NYT).
That trade is now a flashpoint. On July 30, U.S. President Donald Trump slapped India with a 25% tariff, accusing it of aiding Russia’s war aims. A week later, he doubled down with an executive order targeting exporters seen to benefit from the Russian oil trade (NYT).
Canada’s small but symbolic entry
Against this backdrop, Canadian shipments to India are small in volume but significant in symbolism.
• May–June 2024: Approximately 262,500 barrels of Canadian crude moved to India via TMX, valued at US $159 million (BIV).
• July 2024: Reliance made its first direct purchase — 2 million barrels of Canadian crude — marking the most substantial Canadian sale to India on record (Reuters).
According to Rita Trichur writing in the Globe & Mail on Aug. 7, the latest sign of increasing Indian interest is the Indian Oil Corp.’s purchase of 500,000 barrels of Western Canadian Select for September delivery.
These shipments represent a diversification for India, giving it an alternative to Russian and Persian Gulf supplies, and a potential geopolitical hedge as tensions with Washington grow.
Strategic convergence — and competition
For Canada, India’s giant, flexible refineries are precisely the sort of customers TMX was built to reach. Reliance’s Jamnagar facility can process over 500 different crude grades and is adept at switching feedstocks based on market advantage (NYT). That makes Canadian heavy and medium crudes a natural fit — if price and freight conditions are right.
Yet Canada is not alone in targeting India. The same ultra-large crude carriers that carry Russian barrels to Jamnagar can just as easily deliver Venezuelan, Saudi, or Brazilian oil.
Why it matters for Canadian producers
• Market leverage: Each cargo sold outside North America increases Canada’s pricing power.
• Political hedge: With Russia’s trade under pressure and Middle East volatility persisting, Canada offers a reliable, sanctions-proof supply line.
• Brand advantage: Canadian crude, produced under some of the world’s strictest environmental and labour standards, offers a reputational edge for buyers sensitive to ESG concerns.
The road ahead
India imports 85% of its crude (NYT), and its refining capacity is still growing. While Canadian shipments are a fraction of its intake today, the TMX route has cracked open a door that could swing wider — especially if Russian volumes taper under political pressure. But without a new oil pipeline to the Canadian port, there will be no way to take full advantage of this opportunity.
PC: Prime Minister Mark Carney greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alta., on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
