We’ve ignored education and productivity stats for decades, and now we’re in the penalty box. Unless we overhaul how we prepare people for work, Canada won’t reach its ambitions of being an energy superpower, the greenest energy producer, or the strongest economy in the G7.
Statistics Canada reports, based on 2021 census numbers: “Canada has the largest share of college or university graduates in the G7.” What has this produced?
The on-the-ground results are not impressive when we consider productivity, incomes, student outcomes, and job vacancies.
Let us see what the numbers really show.
The Centre For The Study of Living Standards, based in Ottawa, published a detailed report on Post-2000 Productivity Performance and Pandemic-Era Productivity Slowdown. They found that productivity growth averaged 1.74 percent between 1973 and 2000, then slowed to 0.86 percent for the next 20 years, essentially cut in half.
Recently, the Fraser Institute published a study finding that the standard of living of the average Canadian declined from 2020 to 2024, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person decreased by 2.0 percent (0.4 percent annually), marking the worst five-year decline since the Great Depression.
From 2015 to 2023, incomes rose by 14 percent for the top 20 percent, 9.5 percent for the middle 60 percent, and just 6.7 percent for the bottom 20 percent. Half of all households saw their income rise by less than 5.5 percent, less than 1 percent per year.
With half of individuals earning less than $36,000 a year, many earn well below what a living wage requires.
“The 2023 living wage for Metro Vancouver is $25.68 per hour. This is the hourly rate that each of two parents working full-time must earn to support a family of four with two young children in Metro Vancouver.”
Cardus published a study in October 2024 examining employment outcomes relative to education levels. It found that the share of over-credentialed workers grew from 42 percent in 2006 to 56 percent in 2024, and the share of graduates with a university degree in jobs that don’t require one more than doubled, from 9 percent to 19 percent over the same period.
In 2022, Statistics Canada, released an updated qualifier on the best in the G7 claim:
Canada leads the G7 for the most educated workforce, thanks to immigrants, young adults, and a strong college sector, but is experiencing significant losses in apprenticeship certificate holders in key trades.
Further along in the statement, we find:
…job vacancies in some related industries, such as construction and fabricated metal product manufacturing, reached record highs in 2022.
Education policy didn’t stand alone. It marched in step with an industrial policy that sidelined resource industries and celebrated services. In 2024, there were 4.2 million goods-producing and 16.5 million services jobs, according to Statistics Canada.
Two outcomes rarely discussed by political and professional elites:
Canada has approximately 390,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than at the sector’s peak in 2004.
Canadian mining finance and expertise were heavily engaged overseas during the 2000s. The Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX-V were the world’s leading venues for mining capital, much of it funding projects abroad. By 2001, more than 1,400 Canadian mining companies held over two-thirds of their assets outside the country.
Yet, we face a persistent shortage of skilled tradespeople and allied workers.
Thankfully, today, we strive to be the best “hewers of wood and drawers of water.” It will not be easy if we are unable to match education and training to the actual economic activity. Effectively using AI tools, we will square that circle.
Let us look at British Columbia specifically.
In British Columbia, governments have long sought to replace lost resource and manufacturing jobs and revenues with those in tourism, hospitality, film, technology, and professional services. These sectors all have value and have contributed to the province’s economy.
But only tech and professional services come close to matching the wages generated by resource extraction and manufacturing.
Energy and public services are clear.
Industrial production encompasses heavy industries, such as forest products, the milling and refining of minerals and metals, as well as the production of steel, aluminum, natural gas, and petroleum by-products.
Manufacturing encompasses a wide range of downstream goods, from airplanes and automobiles to door hinges and metal paper clips.
Services range from haircuts and landscaping to engineering and finance.
ICT (Information & Communication Technology) refers to the digital tools and networks that power telecom, internet, software, and data services, enhancing both services and manufacturing.
So, what does this mean?
The data make it clear: our industrial policy and education strategy are missing the mark. Now is the time to face it, and stop the gaslighting. For decades, anything less than a university degree has been viewed as a sign of a lack of seriousness.
Productivity has declined by half since 2000. For half of Canadians, incomes aren’t even keeping up with the cost of living. More than half of graduates are over-credentialed, and job vacancies in trades are at record highs. Canada has 390,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than it did in 2004, yet we keep congratulating ourselves for producing more degrees.
Until we stop celebrating misleading headlines and start preparing people for the economy we have, we will not win back the trust of young people.
Jim Rushton is a 46-year veteran of BC’s resource and transportation sectors, with experience in union representation, economic development, and terminal management.
